In March 2000, the Government announced a new set of casualty reduction targets for the year 2010 for Great Britain. A key element in the preparation of the new target was to forecast the number of casualties in 2010, taking account of any factors that might influence this number substantially. This TRL Report provides an account of progress up to 2006 and describes the casualty trends and what they suggest for the likelihood of achieving each of the targets. It updates the original analyses with data from 1999 to 2006 to re-assess the conclusions that were drawn about future casualty trends, and summarises the results of other investigations that have been carried out.
The key target is for the number of people killed or seriously injured, and it is highly likely that this will be exceeded. There is no separate target for the number killed, and this has fallen much less than the number killed or seriously injured. At present, it appears likely that the number killed will fall by about 19% from the baseline value by 2010, and the principal challenge for the national road safety strategy up to 2010 will be to achieve a substantially greater reduction.

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