Electrification of personal transport is anticipated to be a natural progression in the process of the decarbonisation of transport. This Insight Report aims to evaluate possible scenarios that already exist, in order determine the most likely scenario for the introduction and adoption of electric vehicles in the UK by 2030. A number of scenarios have been assessed based on a selection of key factors that could influence a possible 2030 scenario. Based on assumptions of how key factors, such as oil price and government policy, are likely to develop in the years leading up to 2030, the most probable scenario is selected for the composition of UK vehicle fleet by that time.
This Insight Report was written as part of an internal reinvestment project for the TRL Academy, The implication of the widespread use of electric vehicles for TRL. Its main purpose is to identify the most probable scenario for the composition of the UK vehicle fleet by 2030, in order to gain an understanding of how widely electric vehicles will be adopted. Based on that scenario, an examination of the possible characteristics of electric vehicles in the UK vehicle fleet by 2030 is described and the implications that this may have on traffic, transportation and safety are discussed.

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