The report describes further analyses of the accident data collected in the Cohort II study (Wells et al., 2008). It employs different procedures to those used in the main study, and approaches the data from a different point of view. It does so by posing two questions. The first is to ask when new drivers have their first accidents, and what are the factors that influence this. The second is to ask what effect accidents have on the attitudes and self-reported behaviours of the drivers who are involved.
The question “how long does it take before a new driver has an accident?” has been investigated by using a technique known as “survival analysis”. In this context, the “survival” is the time (in months or miles) that elapse before the first accident in which the driver is involved. Investigation of the effect on accidents on subsequent driving has only rarely been explored, and even then mostly at an anecdotal or qualitative level. This study employed a methodologically rigorous procedure to investigate the effect of having been accident-involved on self-reported attitudes and behaviours. The Cohort II data provided a good opportunity to assess the value of such models in a traffic safety context.

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