This report describes the methods that have been used to forecast in some detail the number of fatal and serious casualties on British roads in 2020 and 2030. These forecasts will help to provide the numerical context when the Government sets the next round of casualty reduction targets. Statistical models are fitted to past casualty and exposure data, taking account as far as possible of road safety measures that have been introduced.
The models demonstrate sufficient consistency to be used to forecast casualty rates, which are then combined with predictions about the distances travelled in future to produce casualty forecasts. These forecasts assume that the current road safety programme will continue to develop in coming years, but that no major new measures will be introduced. The forecasts take account of the implications of the major reduction in road accident fatalities that occurred in 2008.
The improvement of car secondary safety over the past 15 years has probably been the development that has had the most significant effect on the national casualty total. A statistical model is used to quantify this effect by analysis of accident data. The results of the most recent analyses are presented, and used to estimate the future benefits.

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