In March 2000, the Government announced a new casualty reduction target for the year 2010 for Great Britain. A key element in the preparation of the new target was to forecast the number of casualties in 2010, taking account of any factors that might influence this number substantially. This report provides an account of progress up to 2008 and describes the casualty trends and what they suggest for the likelihood of achieving each part of the target. It updates the original analyses with data from 1999 to 2008 to re-assess the conclusions that were drawn about future casualty trends, and summarises the results of other investigations that have been carried out.
The key part of the target is for the number of people killed or seriously injured (KSI). The target was a 40% reduction, and this was exceeded in 2008; it is likely that there will be further reductions by 2010. There is no separate target for the number killed, and this has fallen much less than the number KSI. At present it appears likely that the number killed will fall by about 34% from the baseline value by 2010, although it may fall farther if the current economic recession is prolonged.

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